(Bloomberg) — China’s economy will likely grow at 6.1% this year, and it won’t drop below 6% in 2020, according to a former central bank adviser.
“Whether China will maintain 6% growth is not a valid question anymore,” Sheng Songcheng, a former director of the People’s Bank of China’s statistics and analysis department, wrote in an article in local media. “The Chinese economy has bottomed out.”
Consumption, investment and trade are expected to recover, and the economy has shown signs of marginal improvement, according to Sheng. “The current reform measures and technological advancement should create huge growth potential for the Chinese economy,” he said.Sheng’s comments are surprisingly upbeat, even taking into account the pick up in economic data in November. Other economists remain skeptical of the sustainability of the rebound, arguing that the data may have been boosted by delayed production or policy distortions, rather than real demand. The median forecast for 2020’s expansion is 5.9%, according to Bloomberg surveys.
Rising Demand for Loans in China Conceals Economic Weakness.
China will set the target for growth at “about 6%” for 2020, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg earlier this month.
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